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Climate alarmists’ deceptive temperature graphic originates from climate activists’ handbook

Dr Matthew Wielicki has been investigating where one of the most influential and deceptive temperature graphics used by the climate change cult originated.  He traced it to a misleading graphic created by an Australian climate activist grou

Climate alarmists’ deceptive temperature graphic originates from climate activists’ handbook

We have tagged this article as propaganda as it imposes a serious spin on the topic.
If not more explanation provided, this article is included as propaganda because it shows clear manufacture from a government controlled dialectic, where a topic is misdirected by some actors in order to mislead people during early stages of a narrative.

Dr. Matthew Wielicki has been investigating where one of the most influential and deceptive temperature graphics used by the climate change cult originated. 

He traced it to a misleading graphic created by an Australian climate activist group and published in their handbook in 2018.  This graphic falsely presents today’s warming as unprecedented and alarming by comparing smoothed temperature proxy reconstructions with modern instrumental temperature data. 

The graphic is based on Shaun A. Marcott et al.‘s 2013 reconstruction of global temperature, which has significant limitations.  Despite Marcott’s clear admission of critical limitations, climate activists, media and even the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (“IPCC”) repeatedly employ distorted visualisations of this graphic.

The misuse of climate data is often incentivised by organisations like the IPCC, which have vested interests in perpetuating a narrative of crisis.

Further reading: After 30 years of climate alarmism, a new book challenges the climate catastrophe doctrine

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Exposing Climate Science’s Biggest Lie

By Dr. Matthew Wielicki

Introduction: Unmasking a Climate Myth

One of the most influential and deceptive climate graphics circulating today did not originate in any peer-reviewed scientific publication. Instead, after a thorough investigation, I traced its roots to a 2018 activist document titled ‘Don’t Mention the Emergency?’ published by the Climate Emergency Declaration group. On page 7 of this document, a graphic dramatically juxtaposes heavily smoothed temperature proxy reconstructions with modern instrumental temperature data, falsely presenting today’s warming as unprecedented and alarming.

Further investigation revealed that this misleading graphic was inspired by a 2013 blog post, ‘The two epochs of Marcott,’ from Our Changing Climate.

This blog itself relied heavily on the Marcott et al. (2013) reconstruction, which explicitly warned about significant limitations in its data:

“We showed that no temperature variability is preserved in our reconstruction at cycles shorter than 300 years, 50% is preserved at 1000-year time scales, and nearly all is preserved at 2000-year periods and longer.”

Smoothing the Past, Irrational Fear, 15 August 2024

Despite Marcott’s clear admission of these critical limitations, climate activists, media and even the IPCC repeatedly employ distorted visualisations of this reconstruction, fuelling unjustified alarmism. Why have the authors and the IPCC remained silent when confronted with such blatant misuse of their data?

My Investigations into Climate Data Manipulation

In previous detailed analyses, I’ve exposed similar deceptive practices, highlighting fundamental flaws and intentional oversights in climate reconstructions. In one piece, I revealed how smoothing techniques erase natural climate variability, artificially inflating perceived modern warming.

Another investigation critically examined speleothem proxies from Moondyne Cave in Australia, emphasising severe discrepancies between proxy-derived temperature records and instrumental measurements. These inconsistencies question the reliability of widely cited climate reconstructions.

I have also systematically evaluated proxy limitations: spanning ice cores, tree rings, corals, paleosols and plant stomata, revealing substantial uncertainties and inherent inaccuracies undermining confident claims about historical climate conditions. This comprehensive analysis consistently demonstrates that proclamations of unprecedented warming rely on deeply flawed interpretations of proxy data.

Understanding Climate Proxy Reconstructions

Climate proxy reconstructions involve using natural archives, such as tree rings, ice cores, coral growth and cave formations (speleothems), to estimate past climate conditions before modern instruments. These methods typically involve measuring stable isotopes, chemical compositions or growth patterns influenced by environmental factors. However, proxies inherently smooth out short-term climate fluctuations, preserving mainly long-term trends.

Marcott’s reconstruction, for example, relies on sediment cores and ice core isotopic data, which are aggregated and statistically smoothed, removing variability shorter than 300 years. Thus, today’s short-term warming appears artificially exaggerated when compared directly to these heavily smoothed historical datasets.

Who Profits from Climate Alarmism?

The persistent distortion of climate data is not merely accidental – it is actively incentivised. Organisations like the IPCC, significantly funded by government agencies, environmental activist groups and private foundations, have vested interests in perpetuating a narrative of crisis. The silence from researchers whose work is frequently misrepresented, such as Marcott, often reflects dependency on continued funding, creating a cycle perpetuating misinformation.

This systemic bias compromises scientific objectivity, transforming science into advocacy rather than unbiased investigation.

Real World Context vs. Climate Alarmism

To illustrate the absurdity of panic over minor temperature shifts, consider typical temperature variations in major global cities:

  • Denver, USA: Daily temperature swings often exceed 10°C, with annual variations between winter lows of around -8°C to summer highs around 32°C. A gradual 1–3°C increase is negligible in comparison.
  • New York, USA: Experiences annual temperature fluctuations from -6°C in winter to over 30°C in summer, making incremental warming virtually undetectable.
  • London, UK: Annual variations range from approximately 2°C in winter to 25°C in summer. Small incremental warming would remain insignificant.
  • Sydney, Australia: Seasonal temperatures fluctuate from 8°C to 27°C, regularly experiencing daily shifts exceeding 12°C, overshadowing any gradual climatic trends.
  • Tokyo, Japan: With temperatures swinging annually from about 2°C to over 31°C, alarmist claims lose credibility against such typical variations.

These real-world examples clearly illustrate that minor gradual temperature rises, depicted as existential threats, are insignificant compared to everyday climate experiences.

Conclusion: Restoring Integrity to Climate Science

This investigation into the misleading climate graphic highlights critical flaws in both the representation and interpretation of climate data. To restore credibility, scientists and influential bodies like the IPCC must embrace transparency, rigorously correct misinformation and reject alarmist narratives in favour of accurate scientific discourse.

This article is freely available, but for access to over 350 detailed analyses that rigorously challenge mainstream climate narratives, please subscribe at IrrationalFear.com. Join me in advocating for a return to scientific integrity, away from politically motivated fearmongering.

About the Author

Dr. Matthew Wielicki describes himself as an “Earth science professor-in-exile.”   He was an assistant professor in the Department of Geological Sciences at the University of Alabama and a post-doctoral research scientist in the Department of Earth, Planetary, and Space Sciences and the Institute for Planets and Exoplanets at the University of California, Los Angeles.

Featured image: “Average global temperature from 20,000 BC. Based on a graph by Jos Hagalaars (2013) drawing on data from a number of scientific papers.”  Shown under the headings: Use three-word slogans and strong messages, The Psychology of Strong Action (from the handbook Don’t Mention the Climate Emergency?: Making the Case for Emergency Climate Action by Jane Morton, Darebin Climate Action Now, September 2018, pg.7)

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