From ... in Economics Research History — May 16, 2025

What is China’s population, and why does it matter?

The Globalists’ agenda is based on spurious claims that the world is overpopulated. Their aims were formalised in a document given to participants of the 1992 Earth Summit. This disturbing document advocated for forceful population contro

The problem is, the depopulation agenda bases its death cult on estimates, guesses, predictions and projections of the global population; the truth is no one knows what the global population is. This is exemplified by China, a country that purportedly has the second-largest population at 1.4 billion.

In recent months, Lei’s Real Talk has been publishing a series of videos explaining her investigation into how many people actually live in China – it is nowhere near 1.4 billion and never has been. Below, we have republished a summary of Lei’s Real Talk’s findings as submitted on Reddit.

Why would China exaggerate their population statistics? One reason is for the allocation of international aid and whether the World Bank classifies a country as an aid recipient or as an aid donor.

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Table of Contents

Is China’s Real Population Only 600-800 Million?

By NoStop9004, 25 January 2025

The only source for China’s population being 1.4 – 1.5 billion is China itself. No other source has ever verified this claim. Literally no one knows what China’s real population is, except for China’s leaders who may well be overstating the population for countless reasons, such as to look stronger than they are.

Data that comes out of China has always been considered unreliable because democracy, transparency and freedom of the press do not exist in China. Demographers such as Yi Fuxian stated that China’s population was closer to 1.2 billion than the official 1.4 billion. China has had a 1 child policy for almost 40 years from 1979-2015. A fertility rate of 2.1 is needed just to keep the population the same, so how could China gain 300 million from 1990-2020 when its overall fertility rate was only about 1.5? And that figure is based on official statistics – the real fertility rate could be as low as 1.0, as noted by experts like Yi Fuxian.

Western countries kept gaining population despite low fertility rates because of immigration. China does not get any immigrants, so how could its population rise from 1.1 billion in 1990 to 1.4 billion in 2020? How could China have gained 300 million with a low fertility rate and no massive-scale immigration?

Some will say that China’s population growth still had momentum but other countries like India had 860 million in 1990 and had 1.4 billion by 2020, despite a far higher fertility rate of 3.0 and more momentum. How is it possible that China’s population grew similarly to India despite a far lower fertility rate and less momentum?

Even taking into account life expectancy does not explain things, as the life expectancy in China only rose by 10 years from 1990-2020 while it rose higher in India by 12 years in the same period.

The death rate in China is also a lot higher than in India due to high corruption, pollution and suicides. China also lost at least millions, if not tens of millions, if not hundreds of millions to the coronavirus and suffered more from covid than other countries.

I will present some videos that you do not have to or even need to watch, but I recommend the videos by Lei’s Real Talk, as she presents substantial evidence and reasoning for her claims.

This video titled ‘How I used AI to calculate China’s real population’ by Lei’s Real Talk states that when the official fertility rate of 1.7 from 1990-2020 was used for ChatGPT’s population calculator – China’s population should have dropped from 1.14 billion in 1990 to 890 million in 2020 instead of increasing to 1.41 billion like in the official statistics. The same method was applied to India, and it found that the population should have increased from 870 million to 1.43 billion, which was almost the same as India’s official population of 1.38 billion. So, it seems like India’s population statistics are more accurate. It is suspicious that China still had a larger population than India in 2020 despite a way lower fertility rate, greater emigration to other countries, and a higher death rate.

That same video decided to use the likely lower than officially reported fertility rate for China between 2000-2010 of 1.1 and the population calculator calculated that China’s real population for 2020 was only 695 million, as opposed to the official 1.41 billion. All of that is not taking into account covid deaths.

If the video above is removed from YouTube, you can watch it on Rumble HERE.

This video – [the video is “Private,” see HERE] – estimates that China lost between 200-600 million to covid. China had experienced the disappearance of more than 21 million cell phone accounts all the way back in early 2020 when covid started to spread which might indicate a high death toll from covid and this was only the start of covid about 5 years ago – since then, hundreds of millions of weak and vulnerable old people could have died due to covid.

It is believed that China’s economy might only be 40% of the official statistics because economic growth is correlated with increased electricity consumption and yet, the amount of night lights from China seen by satellites does not correlate with economic growth. This video – ‘China’s Economy is 60% Smaller Than We Thought’ – goes into detail. If China’s population is only 40% of the official figures, that would explain why China’s economy is only 40% the size of the official economic data.

The video above refers to THIS article, which includes source links, and THESE calculations.

The Russians even conducted their own study in which they added up all the officially stated population of cities in China and got 280 million inhabitants, and assuming that the ratio of urban-rural inhabitants in China is about 1-1, they concluded that China’s real population is between 500-800 million. This video by Lei’s Real Talk explains it:

If the video above is removed from YouTube, you can watch it on Rumble HERE.

The Japanese also came to the same conclusion as the Russians after realising that salt consumption in China had halved, which could indicate a significant decline in the population due to demographic crisis and covid deaths.

This other video by Lei’s Real Talk titled ‘China’s vanishing population and the lie of 1.4 billion people’ states that 200-500 million died from covid and shows video evidence of depopulated cities and sparsely populated rural areas.

This video by Lei’s Real Talk titled ‘The Vanishing Billion: Exposing China’s Population Myth’ summarises the previous videos she made about China’s population and states that China might only have 300 million people remaining.

So, if the fertility rate of 1.7 between 1990-2020 is used, then China’s real population is not 1.5 billion but 900 million. If the fertility rate is further adjusted to be 1.1 between 2000-2010, then the population is 700 million. If the 200-500 million death toll from covid is taken into account, then the population is only 200-500 million. One can take the median number of that range, which is 350 million. All of this means that the United States could have more people than China.

What are the counter-arguments in favour of trusting the official population statistics? So far, I heard none. Some say that the official statistics must be correct but these same people present no logical reason as to why. Of course, the fertility rate could have been higher than reported. Not everyone abided by the one-child policy, and that policy only applied to crowded urban areas and not rural areas or to ethnic minorities. And a fertility rate of 2.1 is not necessary as the population can still rise if the number of births exceeds the number of deaths. But could China’s real population still be a few hundred million less than 1.4 billion, like 1-1.2 billion? Most likely.

So, how likely is the idea that China has less than 400 million people? It is possible but unlikely. Know that China was not being transparent with its covid death toll. In 2020, they claimed that only 3,000 died from covid in all of China when many crematoriums reported that they alone were each burning 2,000 bodies each day. China has been setting up more crematoriums, while the average city and village reported far more deaths than births despite China claiming that the overall population rose past 1.4 billion.

You could argue that it is IMPOSSIBLE to fake a country’s population on such a scale for so long without anyone noticing. But remember – only China counts its own population, literally no one else is allowed to. I personally believe that China’s population is between 1-1.2 billion. What do you think? Please present facts and logical reasoning if you want to strengthen your argument.

Why Would China Inflate Its Population Numbers?

There could be a variety of reasons to inflate population numbers, including as the basis for the depopulation agenda we mentioned in our introduction. Another reason could be for the allocation of international aid, as a reply to NoStop9004’s Reddit submission noted:

What Longjumping Ebb is referring to is the World Bank’s classifications or income groupings of countries based on gross national income (“GNI”) per capita. The World Bank’s GNI per capita significantly influences the allocation of aid. Major donors rely heavily on the GNI per capita to determine the financial needs and capacities of recipient countries, often reducing aid once a country’s GNI per capita surpasses a certain threshold.

According to Wikipedia, China receives a relatively small amount of foreign aid compared to its economic size. In 2001, China received $1.4 billion in foreign aid (about $1.10 per capita), which was down from the 1999 figure of $2.4 billion ($1.90 per capita). By 2011, the United States had reduced its aid to China to about $12 million from USAID. In 2003, China received $1.3 billion in aid (about $1 per capita).

More recent data shows that in 2021, Britain still spent over £50 million a year in development aid to China, despite China being the world’s second-largest economy and investing in UK infrastructure projects for commercial or political gain. A 2023 research briefing published on the UK government’s website stated:

The UK Government argued China no longer required aid assistance due to its economic growth and ability to finance its own development. In 2009, the Commons International Development Committee also judged that funding could be scaled down, but said continuing some aid would help support sustainable and green development in the country.

China is now classed by the World Bank as an upper-middle income country and has been the world’s second largest economy since 2010. World Bank data shows poverty in China has fallen substantially since the 1970s, and the Chinese Government invests significant amounts overseas through its Belt and Road infrastructure initiative.
Research Briefing: UK aid and China, UK Government, 26 October 2023

If China has been the world’s second biggest economy since 2010, why was a smaller economy, such as the UK, giving it foreign aid? Perhaps a 2011 article by the Bretton Woods Project holds some clues.

The Bretton Woods Project noted that “China joined the World Bank in April 1980, and since then has been one of its largest borrowers and recipients of technical assistance. In recent years, China has gone beyond the only role of recipient country and has increased its influence inside the Bank … This change has been signalled by Chinese high-level staff appointments and shifts in voting power … China also influences the Bank indirectly by being an alternative lender for other developing countries.”

Meanwhile, a report in 2017 revealed that China spent $354.3 billion in aid over the 15 years from 2000 to 2014, a figure approaching the $394.6 billion spent by the US over the same period. The countries that benefited the most from China’s aid were Angola, Pakistan and Russia.

“Just 22 per cent of the total [$394.6 billion] was spent on official development assistance (ODA), a technical name for what is generally called “foreign aid.” As a point of comparison, roughly 93 per cent of US overseas development spending counts as ODA,” NPR said.

In case anyone is wondering, none of China’s foreign aid goes to Britain. Unlike China, the UK does not receive foreign aid; it is a major donor of foreign aid. The reason for this has to do with how the World Bank classifies countries using GNI per capita.

How World Bank Classifications Affect Aid and Why China’s Population Levels Matter

The long-standing United Nations target is that “developed” countries should devote 0.7% of their GNI to ODA. According to the World Bank’s calculations, China is not a “developed” nation.

Official Development Assistance (“ODA”) or “global aid” is a transfer of money and resources from predominantly richer countries to developing countries. China is not classified as one of the “richer” countries, or high-income economies, that should participate in giving 0.7% of their GNI as aid. Instead, China is classified as a “developing” country, an “upper middle-income” country, that is eligible to receive aid.

Being the second largest economy in the world, how is China classified as a recipient and not a donor of foreign aid? One obvious reason is that China has exaggerated its population numbers, possibly by 30-50%. If China’s population is half of what China claims, say, the GNI per capita would be double what the World Bank has calculated it to be.

Each year, the World Bank recalculates the GNI per capita thresholds for each of the four bands: low-income (aid recipient), lower middle-income (aid recipient), upper middle-income (aid recipient) and high-income economies (aid donor).

Explaining how it calculates GNI per capita, the World Bank states: “Estimates of GNI are obtained from economists in World Bank country units who rely primarily on official data published by the countries; the size of the population is estimated by World Bank demographers from a variety of sources, including the UN’s biennial World Population Prospects.”

In 2011, the upper middle-income threshold was $3,976, and at a GNI per capita of $12,275, a country was classified as a “richer” country and not eligible for aid. China’s per capita GNI was $4,930.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the total population of mainland China at the end of 2011 was 1,3 billion people. If China had half the population, i.e. 700 million people, the GNI per capita would have been double that calculated by the World Bank. At £9,860 GNI per capita, China would still have been classified as an upper middle-income country and eligible for foreign aid. However, fast forward to 12 years later and things look very different.

In 2023, the World Bank calculated China’s GNI per capita as $12,614.10 using a population of 1.41 billion. If China’s population was half of what the Chinese Communist Party claims, i.e. 700 million, the GNI per capita of China would have been $25,228,20. Almost double the threshold to be classified as a country as a high-income economy ($13,205). Therefore, China should not have been labelled as a recipient of aid but rather as a donor, as is the case with the UK and other “richer” countries.

In 2025, the threshold to be classified as a high-income economy has been calculated as a GNI per capita of $14,005, which, depending on China’s population, China surpassed years ago.

Is it any wonder that China continues to declare that its population is well over 1 billion?

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What is China’s population, and why does it matter?

Is China’s Real Population Only 600-800 Million?

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How World Bank Classifications Affect Aid and Why China’s Population Levels Matter

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